Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan have trained together on the mats at American Top Team in Coconut Crek, Fla., however on Saturday in Las Vegas the lightweights will be in opposite corners.
The pair headline a UFC Fight Night card at the Meta Apex with Brazil’s Moicano hoping to end a two-fight skid and Scotland’s Duncan looking for his fifth consecutive win.
The co-main event features top strawweights Virna Jandiroba and Tabatha Ricci with Ricci in a position to move closer to a title shot at 115 pounds and Jandiroba attempting to return to the win column after falling short in a title fight this past October.
Moicano, Duncan, Jandiroba and Ricci all successfully made weight Friday at the official weigh-in, although three fighters were over their respective limits on their initial attempts.
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev weighed in above the non-title light-heavyweight limit of 206 pounds by one pound, former flyweight Rafael Estevam was a half pound above the non-title bantamweight limit of 136, and Darrius Flowers was half a pound over the non-title lightweight limit of 156.
All three were given an extra hour to make weight. Yakhyaev ended up shedding the extra pound to reach 206 pounds, but Estevam and Flowers decided not to cut any additional weight and were each fined 20 per cent of their purse yet their fights will proceed. This was Estevam’s third weight miss in the UFC.
Below is the projected bout order for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan (subject to change) plus full predictions:
MAIN CARD
— Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan
— Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci
— Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev vs. Brendson Ribeiro
— Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam
— Tommy McMillen vs. Manolo Zecchini
— Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Guilherme Pat vs. Thomas Petersen
— Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll
— Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers
— Alice Pereira vs. Hailey Cowan
— Azamat Bekoev vs. Tresean Gore
— Dione Barbosa vs. Melissa Gatto
— Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope
Ahead of each UFC event in 2026, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.
AARON’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev -1500
Favourite: Ethyn Ewing -140
Underdog: Renato Moicano +145
Dart Throw: Robert Ruchala wins by decision +550
When someone is lined at -1500, they are essentially a lock and Yakhyaev certainly feels like he has Ribeiro’s number wherever the fight takes place. … While Estevam is undefeated, he is moving up a weight class and his lack of output paired with having to face a bigger opponent has me leaning towards Ewing. After a successful debut against a high-level striker in Malcolm Wellmaker, Ewing will now be tested by a high-level grappler and it is a test that I believe he passes. … Chris Duncan has been on a roll lately, but has typically been the underdog, this time around, he is the favourite against arguably his toughest test to date. Moicano’s speed and grappling could give him fits over the course of five rounds and I like getting him at a value price. … Delano looks like a solid prospect, however I believe that Ruchala, a former KSW champion, is not getting enough respect in this spot. He is tough as nails and I expect him to give Delano all that he can handle.
DAN’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Tommy McMillen -1400
Favourite: Jose Delano -285
Underdog: Rafael Estevam +125
Dart Throw: Jandiroba wins inside the distance +450
All aboard the Tommy McMillen hype train! I think the rising prospect has a favourable matchup this week and the perfect opportunity to show the world what his fans already know: Tommy McMillen is going to be a problem at featherweight. McMillen is a great striker and accomplished wrestler who is taking on an opponent that was unceremoniously knocked out in Round 1 of his UFC debut: Manolo Zecchini. McMillen probably wins inside the distance, but an outright win here parlayed with other value plays could make for a trip (or two) to the pay window.
Like McMillen, Jose Delano is also making his UFC debut and should get his hand raised on Saturday. Delano’s opponent Robert Ruchala seemed a step slower than William Gomis in his UFC debut and will likely struggle to cope with Delano’s well-rounded game. … I think recency bias is impacting the money line on Ethyn Ewing vs Rafael Estevam. It’s hard to cheer against Ewing given his Cinderella story win over Malcolm Wellmaker at UFC 322 at MSG. I just think Estevam is a more cerebral fighter than Wellmaker and will not underestimate Ewing in this fight. When you remove the element of surprise and sentimental storylines from this bout, it’s a very even fight. Worth leaning the underdog here. … If Virna Jandiroba is able to execute her game plan on Saturday night, she could very well finish Tabatha Ricci inside the distance. As she begins to wear on her opponent there will be openings to snatch a limb or even reign down shots from a dominant position. I’m OK with the risk vs. reward factor of +450 here. It’s longshot odds on a probable outcome in my opinion.
MIKE’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Azamat Bekoev -600
Favourite: Virna Jandiroba -120
Underdog: Hailey Cowan +110
Dart Throw: Duncan by submission +750
Without a handful of questionable fight IQ moments in her last fight, Jandiroba could very well be champ right now. Despite her age and falling short against Mackenzie Dern, she is still a tough out at strawweight and will be Tabatha Ricci’s toughest test in at least a couple years. … Moicano is a terrific grappler but has lost a couple times by sub in the UFC and Duncan has a tight squeeze. I could see a world where Duncan rocks Moicano and jumps on a choke. … Bekoev was humbled in his last outing but I’m a believer in the former LFA champ and think he gets by Tresean Gore on the prelims. … Alice Pereira gets hyped because she made it to the UFC by age 20 but her skill set leaves much to be desired and Hailey Cowen has the edge in experience and strength of schedule.
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Yakhyaev + McMillen + Bekoev
Parlay odds: -300 (to win: $33.33)
2026 STANDINGS AFTER 9 EVENTS
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
2026 record: 3-6 (L2)
2026 winnings: -$336.12 (on $100 bets)
AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (15-21, -2.64 units)
Cage Lock: 4-5 (-$406.61)
Favourite: 6-3 (+$13.24)
Underdog: 3-6 (-$120)
Dart throw: 2-7 (+$250)
DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (17-19, -4.52 units)
Cage Lock: 8-1 (+$14.58)
Favourite: 5-4 (-$166.61)
Underdog: 3-6 (-$150)
Dart throw: 1-8 (-$150)
MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (15-21, -11.46 units)
Cage Lock: 8-1 (+$85.13)
Favourite: 4-5 (-$261.80)
Underdog: 3-6 (-$70)
Dart throw: 0-9 (-$900)
Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.
Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)
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