Monday, 18 November 2024

Senators Notebook: ‘Dark cloud’ has lifted for Perron after family health scare

OTTAWA — For many of us, hockey is a distraction from the ups and downs of life. Unfortunately for Ottawa Senators winger David Perron, a terrifying episode took over his life when his fourth child, Elizabeth, was born with a mass in her lung on Oct. 27.

In August, doctors had identified the mass, allowing for Elizabeth to immediately undergo emergency surgery to remove it when she was born. To state the obvious, hockey means nothing in moments like these.

“There were a couple of scary moments where you think they’re going to have to take the whole lung out and you start wondering,” said Perron. “You start wondering what’s that life going to be like?

“In August, when we found out, we had to make an emergency trip to Toronto and the mass was pushing so much on the heart that we thought she may have a heart attack.”

Hockey took a back seat for Perron, but the good news is that his daughter looks to be on track for a healthy life.

“It was a dark cloud hanging over my head that you’re trying to manage and live your life normally,” Perron said. “There’s so many people that go through this situation. Now, it seems like it’s more under control.”

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Ottawa’s 4-0 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday marked Perron’s first game since Oct. 19 because he was away from the team with his wife, Vanessa, and newborn, Elizabeth.

Perron was excited to return to the ice to distract himself with the game he loves.

“It’s just good to be around the guys,” said Perron before the game. “The last several days of skating, and taking part as much as I can, it’s good to be around, honestly. This is what we do for a living and sometimes there’s bigger things and I had to take care of it.”

During camp Perron had to travel back and forth to Toronto two to three times a week to be there for his wife and soon-to-be daughter.

“We didn’t know (what was happening) and we had appointments all the time,” said Perron. “We were in a hotel for almost all of training camp, and it’s been a crazy time, but I’m glad it’s almost over with. We’re not fully out of the woods, but we’re getting there.”

On the ice, Perron had unquestionably played well through camp and the first four games of the season, despite the concern for his family.

Though he did not record a point in his first four games of the season, Perron had been noticeable on a line with Michael Amadio and Shane Pinto, which had been dominant, out-shooting opponents 47 to 31 according to Natural Stat Trick, with a 73 per cent expected goals percentage.

On Saturday, along with the entire Senators team, his line struggled, getting out-shot 4-to-1. For a brief moment it looked like he had contributed on the scoreboard for a poetic return.

In the second period, Perron manoeuvred past a Carolina defenceman to find Tim Stützle backdoor with a beautiful pass, to seemingly tie the game 1-1. But the goal was called off because of a questionable interference penalty on Stützle for stick-checking Andrei Svechnikov.

If the goal had stood, the story arc would have been that Perron was a hero in his comeback. But playing hockey with a wounded heart is valiant regardless of the outcome.

Why Ottawa?

Part of the reason the 36-year-old Perron signed a two-year, $8 million deal with Ottawa this off-season was because of his family. A francophone from Sherbrooke, Que., Perron wanted his kids to learn his culture and language after years of living in the United States. That is why Perron was excited to move to a bilingual city.

“We go around the city and we hear more French than English at times, and we’re like, where are we again?” said Perron to Sportsnet during training camp. “I hope that these next couple years will even help get (the kids’) French to be better.”

Perron speaks French at home to his kids: Mason, 9, Victoria, 7, Sofia, 21 months, and now Elizabeth. As part of raising a francophone family in Ottawa, Perron has enrolled his older kids in French schools.

During training camp, Perron said he was struck by how French was spoken in the city of Ottawa.

“I was grabbing a coffee, and I think the person recognized my accent a little bit and just started speaking French for me right away,” said Perron. “I was caught off guard. Even seeing all the signs everywhere, like, even I went to Canadian Tire last night for Halloween, Halloween signs were both in French and English, two versions of it. Honestly, that’s the first time I’ve seen that.”

Two things can be true

In my other job as a psychotherapist, I tell my clients that two things can be true, to help them makes sense of a sometimes incomprehensible world. Senators fans might feel eternal gloom after seasons mired in disappointment and losses. On Saturday, their dark mood would be justifiable based on both the refereeing and the Senators’ overall play.

The referees made two clear-cut mistakes. First, they retracted Stützle’s tying goal and then shortly after gave Pinto two minutes for a phantom slash on Hurricanes netminder Spencer Martin, which Carolina capitalized on to score their second goal of the game.

“I think that was a huge part of the game,” said Ottawa coach Travis Green. “I really don’t understand how that’s not a goal or how it’s a penalty. It’s a big moment of the game. Could have been 1-1. And then the call on Pinto is for me, another one that really changed momentum all of a sudden. Not only are we 1-1, but we’re short-handed and take the too-many-men, which you don’t like to take, but we shouldn’t have been short-handed there as well.”

Green is right, but his team had not painted themselves with any glory to that point or throughout the game. Carolina threw 64 shot attempts compared to Ottawa’s 47 in the game. There was no question who the better team was. Senators deserved a better fate with the stripes, but not with the win column.

Languishing special teams

After a red-hot start on the power play with 10 goals on the first 25 opportunities for the Senators, the team has been pedestrian ever since with the man advantage, scoring six times on their last 33 attempts for an 18 percent mark. At that rate, the Senators would have the 19th-ranked power play in the league, compared to their current sixth, running at 27.6 percent. It’s a worrisome sign.

Against Carolina, the Senators’ puck movement was poor on the power play, and they had difficulties entering the Hurricanes’ zone, leading to missing out on all four power-play opportunities, while only generating only six shots on goal and one high-danger opportunity according to Natural Stat Trick. Meanwhile, the Senators allowed two goals while shorthanded. First, on a five-on-three, they left Sebastian Aho all alone for a one-timer to double the Hurricanes’ lead to 2-0. Then, to open the third period on the power play, Jackson Blake pushed himself past Thomas Chabot to give the Hurricanes a commanding 3-0 lead.

“You don’t like to give up two power-play goals on the road,” said Green.

The Senators are running a 78 per cent penalty kill, which places them 23rd in the league. A poor penalty kill and a slumping power play are a recipe for consistently lacking success. If the Senators want to win, special teams will be their key. 



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20 Fantasy Thoughts: Stutzle’s torrid start is erasing doubts from last season

I’ll raise my hand as being wrong about Tim Stutzle this year.

Heading into the season I had a choice as to who my final keeper would be and it came down to Stutzle or Joel Eriksson Ek. I had my doubts about Stutzle because of his regression in 2023-24 and even with a low shooting percentage, his numbers were still down in almost every metric. Plus, my league counts faceoff wins and Eriksson Ek is one of the best options available for category coverage, so I ultimately went with him. It’s still early, and I try to avoid looking back in fantasy hockey, but I’m definitely starting to feel some regret.

Stutzle has been a force of nature this season. He has points in all but four games (some would argue it should be three after a questionable disallowed goal on Saturday), five multi-point games and is starting to look like a legitimate superstar. The Ottawa Senators forward is exerting himself physically as well, on pace for a career-best 148 hits. Stutzle is really starting to develop into a multi-cat stud who should be a high-end draft pick across all leagues.

The Sens have also moved Stutzle around in their top six this season, jumpstarting their top two lines at different times throughout the year. He’s been split pretty evenly between Brady Tkachuk and Ridly Greig, as well as Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson. Stutzle can play just about anywhere and with anyone, and still help drive his line.

Maybe we shouldn’t be that surprised about Stutzle’s start because he does have a 90-point season to his credit already. That said, he hasn’t produced anything close to that in his other three campaigns and it’s always fair to wonder if that was an anomaly until you see more consistency from a player. There’s still a long way to go, but right now Stutzle is providing massive value for where he was taken in drafts for 2024-25. Stutzle is on a 102-point pace while sitting in the top 20 in league scoring with no signs of slowing down. I’m certainly not doubting him anymore.

1. A bounce-back campaign could be in the cards for John Tavares. The Toronto Maple Leafs forward had just 65 points a year ago, after posting 80 in 2022-23, and clearly looked like he was losing a step. He very well may be, but Tavares does look a little fresher this season and is close to a point per game once again with nine goals already.

Maybe relinquishing the captaincy to Auston Matthews has actually done him some good. Tavares already has three power-play goals this season, which is a third of his total on the man advantage from 2023-24. If Toronto’s power play can maintain its recent pace, there’s a good chance Tavares could easily surpass all his totals on the man advantage from last season.

2. In the six games that Matthews has missed, Mitch Marner has multi-point games in five of them. Most players’ value would take a massive hit after losing their superstar centre, but Marner is thriving. His contract negotiations, whenever they heat up, are going to be fascinating.

3. It’s tough to justify rostering Max Domi at this point. He doesn’t have a point in 13 games, hasn’t scored yet this season and wasn’t able to take advantage of a promotion to the top line with Marner when Matthews was sidelined. Domi had some value coming into the season in leagues that count penalty minutes and the fact that he had some chemistry with Matthews last year, but any upside is quickly eroding.

4. After a slow start, Rasmus Dahlin has now tallied 14 points in his past 10 games. The Buffalo Sabres defenceman regressed offensively a bit last season, which bumped him down in drafts from that top tier of blue-liners in drafts. If Dahlin can get anywhere close to 70-75 points, he’ll be a steal in 2024-25 because of the hits and blocks coverage he provides.

5. It looks like the net was going to be Alexandar Georgiev’s again in Colorado before he sustained an injury. He recently made four starts in a row and won three straight games. I think the plan was to always try to get him going again because he gives them the best chance to win right now. If Justus Annunen is to remain fantasy-relevant, he’s going to have to make the most of any playing time he gets with Georgiev sidelined.

6. The Avalanche got some reinforcements back this week, too. Jonathan Drouin and Valeri Nichushkin returned, with both starting on the second power-play unit. That means Artturi Lehkonen and Casey Mittelstadt remain on the coveted power play one for now with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Maybe most encouraging was Gabriel Landeskog joining the morning skate the other day for a few drills. Perhaps he’s getting closer.

7. Matvei Michkov returned from his two-game stint in the press box and promptly recorded five points in his next three games. He’s up to 15 points in 16 contests now, so there’s major value there when he’s in the lineup. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Philadelphia Flyers head coach John Tortorella sits him here and there again throughout the season, but Michkov is still important enough to hang onto.

8. If you need help between the pipes, Ivan Fedotov is worth a short-term look with Samuel Ersson sidelined. He’s now 3-0-0 with a .918 save percentage in his past three starts. The trouble is the Flyers have a tough schedule next week, with games against Colorado and Carolina. Not an ideal time to add him but if you’re desperate, there are worse options than Fedotov right now.

9. Jordan Martinook is on an incredible recent scoring surge. The Carolina Hurricanes forward has six goals and eight points in his past six games while playing on the third line and getting virtually no power play time. It’s hard to see this lasting long term, especially now that Seth Jarvis is going to miss some time, but Martinook could be a good streamer for Sunday and then see where this goes next week. 

10. Do you take a gamble on Spencer Martin? Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen are both injured, so Martin could get a handful of starts here for a team known for being very goalie-friendly. It seems like a low-risk, high-reward move that could help you in net in the short term and Martin is off to a good start with a shutout Saturday.

11. Joey Daccord is starting to take over the crease for the Seattle Kraken. After alternating starts with Philipp Grubauer at the start of the year, Daccord has now played in nine of the past 11 games with excellent results. If you look a little further down the road as well, the Kraken have a great schedule to close out November. Seattle has back-to-backs with San Jose and Anaheim, which could give Daccord a really good stretch to help you win a matchup or two.

12. William Eklund is getting some crazy ice time right now and has notched 13 points in 18 games. He’s gaining the trust of the San Jose Sharks coaching staff, averaging over 20 minutes per night so far. Add in the fact that Eklund is getting top time on the power play as well, and I think he’s more than just a streamer. Eklund is worth hanging onto and is especially valuable next week with the Sharks being one of the few teams to play four times.

13. Give Logan Thompson the edge in the Washington Capitals crease. He’s been better than Charlie Lindgren and recently started two in a row, as the Caps deviated from alternating between the two for the first time this season. I’d still keep the tandem if you can as Washington appears to be a strong team and things could always shift back to Lindgren, but if you’re choosing between them, Thompson is the guy to roster right now.

14. There’s still plenty of value with Vegas Golden Knights forward Pavel Dorofeyev, especially while Mark Stone is injured in the top six. Dorofeyev is already up to nine goals and has very consistent shot volume. Maybe he drops back down when Stone comes back, but right now take advantage of the fact that Dorofeyev is skating next to Jack Eichel.

15. I certainly didn’t have Dallas Stars forward Mason Marchment scoring four points in a period on my bingo card for this week. The Pittsburgh Penguins are giving up a lot of high-quality chances and goals, so it’s worth considering anyone going up against them as streamers in one-game scenarios. Marchment actually finished with four goals and nine points in three games this week, probably winning a whole bunch of matchups essentially all by himself.

16. Tristan Jarry’s return to the Pens crease didn’t go so well, giving up five goals to the Columbus Blue Jackets. I saw a few people scoop him back up off waivers in the hopes he can find his game, but I just don’t see any Penguins goalie having value this season.

17. There are some very encouraging signs that Elias Pettersson is breaking out of his funk. He recently had back-to-back multi-point games and has four goals in his past six contests, while upping his shot volume in the process. Pettersson also looks like he’s playing a bit more North and South and I noticed he was really demanding the puck last Saturday against Edmonton. Jake DeBrusk was also moved back to Pettersson’s line and now has points in six of seven games.

DeBrusk is an important piece for Pettersson to build chemistry with, as the Vancouver Canucks typically play J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser together. When DeBrusk was also moved up with Miller and Boeser, that didn’t leave much for Pettersson to work with. Hopefully, DeBrusk sticks and he and Pettersson can continue to feed off each other offensively.

18. Thursday was a tough night if you’re rostering Josh Morrissey. The Winnipeg Jets defenceman played almost 27 minutes and had zeros across the board in his statline. I’m not even sure how that’s possible. You’d think Morrissey would’ve accidentally bumped into someone with all that time on the ice or a puck would’ve hit him by mistake for a hit or a block. There are few things more frustrating in fantasy when a player gets a ton of ice time but produces absolutely nothing.

19. Only Edmonton, Utah and San Jose play four times next week, so there won’t be that many options on the waiver wire to maximize the schedule. If you need help in goal I’d take a look at Karel Vejmelka, who’s been excellent lately. Vejmelka had 49 saves in a win over the Hurricanes this week and is starting to get more playing time.

I mentioned Anders Lee last week as a short-term option, but he’s starting to look like he’ll be tough to drop. The New York Islanders forward has 10 points in his past eight games and ranks in the top 20 in the NHL when it comes to shots on goal. I’d grab him while you can.

Is this the week you drop Quinton Byfield in one-year leagues? It’s a tough call. The Los Angeles Kings play only twice and Byfield is down to 36 per cent rostered, while being on pace for 39 points. That said, he does have triple-position eligibility and has the talent to get on a hot streak going forward. He’s just tough to keep right now with his low-shot volume, as he doesn’t fill enough categories. Go with your gut.

20. I’d take a look at Frederick Gaudreau as a short-term fill-in if Eriksson Ek is out for a few games with an injury. Gaudreau has nine points in his past nine games playing mainly in the bottom six, so he should hopefully be able to get close to maintaining that pace if he gets a promotion in the lineup.



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Coaches on the hot seat? Four teams that could shake things up

We’re about six weeks into the 2024-25 NHL campaign, and while this is the time we start to really figure out what teams are all about, it feels like this year features a few extra question marks thanks to some surprising underachievers.

Looking at the standings, there are teams with very real playoff expectations sitting closer to the bottom than the top and are now facing tough decisions about how to turn things around.

Unfortunately, this often means looking not just at the players, but also at the person steering the ship from behind the bench.

A coaching change can be a necessary decision to turn a losing season into a winning one, but it’s still a tough one. And in the case of these four clubs, it’s worth wondering whether we might see front offices do exactly that in an effort to jumpstart some production while the standings are still wide open.

Jim Montgomery, Boston Bruins | 8-8-2

Hired: July 1, 2022 | Overall record with BOS: 120-40-22

All eyes were on the Atlantic ahead of the 2024-25 campaign, with fans and prognosticators all trying to figure out how to fit more than five teams from the division into the Eastern Conference post-season picture, considering the collection of clubs in the mix and knocking on the door (spoiler alert: You can’t). But the opposite has happened, with a lot of underperforming teams still figuring out who they are this year.

We just didn’t expect Boston to be one of them. At a glance, things may not look so bad considering the Bruins currently sit third in the Atlantic Division — but the standings don’t exactly tell the whole story.

They’re scoring at a rate that ranks fifth-worst in the league (2.5 goals per game) and are giving up goals too often — their 3.39 goals against per game is seventh-worst. Boston’s minus-16 goal differential looks like that of a rebuilding squad, not a Cup contender. Special teams are downright abysmal, with an underperforming penalty kill (74.3 per cent) and an even worse power play that’s capitalized just 11.4 per cent of the time. We’ve watched as emotions have overflowed on the bench and listened as Montgomery tries to capture what, exactly, is going wrong in his third campaign with the club.

A perennial contender, the Bruins didn’t miss a beat when they transitioned from winning under Bruce Cassidy to winning under Jim Montgomery — they went from great to even better, in fact, posting the best regular season in NHL history in Montgomery’s first year at the helm in 2022-23. He was awarded Jack Adams honours for his efforts and has guided the club to back-to-back playoff appearances. With rumours and reports about his job security suddenly flying about, it’s a harsh reminder for everyone of what a tough business coaching can be.

Mike Sullivan, Pittsburgh Penguins | 6-10-3

Hired: Dec. 12, 2015 | Overall record with PIT: 381-229-80

Nearly a decade into his Pittsburgh tenure, Mike Sullivan is about as synonymous with the Penguins’ success as the franchise’s biggest stars.

Brought up to the big club 28 games into the 2015-16 season, Sullivan was tasked with lighting a spark after an uninspired start under Mike Johnston and instead set the league ablaze with a revitalized Penguins squad that sprinted through the rest of the season all the way to a Stanley Cup. They successfully defended their title the following spring and returned to the playoffs five more times in the five seasons that followed their title defence. Though he never claimed the Jack Adams Award as the league’s top coach, his name is always in the conversation as he’s navigated the Penguins through injuries and into contention year after year. He’s coached and won more games with Pittsburgh than any other bench boss in franchise history and is the second longest-tenured head coach in the NHL right now, behind only Tampa Bay’s Jon Cooper.

Unfortunately, there’s also a reason he’s potentially feeling the heat now. Pittsburgh has missed the last two post-seasons, and finds itself in a tough spot with a win-now core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang that’s aging and cap constraints making it tough to build sufficiently around for one last run. Kyle Dubas opted to keep Sullivan behind the bench when he was hired as general manager in 2023, but as the team continues to drop in the standings, it’s worth wondering whether Dubas will decide to bring in his own candidate to try and light another fire.

The Penguins’ problem areas are clear — with a league-high 3.83 goals allowed per game this season, they lack a true No. 1 netminder that can win them games. They’ve already bounced through three netminders in 18 games and none have been able to stay long. Sitting well outside the playoff picture in the basement of the Metropolitan, Pittsburgh’s time to turn this season around could soon be running out.

Derek Lalonde, Detroit Red Wings | 7-8-1

Hired: June 30, 2022 | Overall record with DET: 83-77-20

It’s been eight seasons since the Detroit Red Wings last appeared in the playoffs, their incredible 25-year run of contention coming to an end in the spring of 2017 as the franchise embarked on major organizational changes and a massive roster overhaul to go with it. As we’ve watched GM Steve Yzerman retool and rebuild the roster and restock his pool of prospects, we’ve wondered when the Red Wings would be ready to re-emerge on the playoff stage.

The team is coming close — and, in the case of last spring, incredibly close — but with those few false starts, we’re still wondering. In some ways, the Red Wings feel a bit like an experiment in expectations vs. reality and whether the team we’re seeing this season so far is right on schedule or already falling behind. They’re second last in the Atlantic and sitting at .500 on the season.

Goaltending was a potential area of concern entering the season, with an aging Cam Talbot leading a largely unproven duo backing him up in Alex Lyon and Ville Husso — but netminding hasn’t been the issue here, the Red Wings posting a 10th best goals against per game (three). Not bad. That said, it’s not making up for the significant drop in offence we’ve seen this year. It’s goal-scoring that’s been harder to come by so far this fall — the team is tallying just shy of 2.5 per game through 15 contests so far, and has scored fewer even-strength markers (19) this year than any other squad. (The power play is pretty decent, ranking seventh thanks to a 25.6 per cent conversion rate.) Detroit’s penalty kill is a major struggle, ranking third worst right now (66.7 per cent).

Maybe Lalonde hasn’t exactly been provided all the tools, roster-wise, to win. But three seasons into his tenure, it’s still hard not to view this year, so far, as a disappointment — and it’s even harder to determine whether a change behind the bench would help or hurt.

Andrew Brunette, Nashville Predators | 5-10-3 (13 pts)

Hired: May 31, 2023 | Overall record with NSH: 59-40-8

Andrew Brunette has had his term cut short before — despite guiding the Florida Panthers to the Presidents’ Trophy (and himself to the list of Jack Adams finalists) as interim in 2021-22, the team released him to bring in Paul Maurice. Now in the second season of his second chance after he was handed the keys to the Nashville Predators in 2023, will Brunette have the opportunity to see this one through?

This was a franchise that looked like it was flirting with a rebuild when he was hired, but a 47-30-5 campaign last year — good for fourth in the Central and a wild card spot in the West — seemed to reroute the club. Juuse Saros signed a massive extension to stay, and a summertime shopping spree dragged the club back into the spotlight. They handed four-year and five-year deals to Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, respectively, solidifying their situation down the middle and making a statement that the Predators are, in fact, ready to win now.

And yet, 17 games into the season, the Predators have yet to play like the star-studded club that it is. Sitting last in the Central Division, they’ve won just five games — same as San Jose, Columbus, Anaheim, and Montreal, all of whom are deep in the throes of a rebuild. They’re tied with Chicago for the fourth-fewest goals scored per game. Only three players — Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, and Ryan O’Reilly — have hit double-digits in points. The only thing going right is the penalty kill, which is operating at a league-best 91.5 per cent rate.

The Predators have proven themselves to be a loyal organization — they’ve had just four coaches since their establishment in 1998. And just as Barry Trotz went from David Poile’s first coaching hire to his successor as GM, there’s a connection here, too, between Trotz and Brunette. Brunette was an original member of that inaugural Predators roster under Trotz, and even scored the franchise’s first-ever goal.

In any normal situation, Brunette should not be feeling the heat. But something’s gotta give if this group is to hit its stride before it’s too late, and most often that comes in the form of changes behind the bench. Will that be the case in Nashville?



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32 Thoughts Podcast: Can you take the salary cap higher?

In this edition of 32 Thoughts, Kyle Bukauskas and Elliotte Friedman begin the podcast by unpacking the latest developments surrounding league revenues and the potential ramifications for the salary cap. 



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Sunday, 17 November 2024

NFL Week 11 (Nov. 17)



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New England Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore to make season debut vs. LA Rams

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — New England Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore is active for Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Rams and will make his season debut after being out since July with blood clots.

Barmore was removed from the NFL’s non-football illness list on Saturday. The 25-year-old practised for the first time this season on Thursday and posted on Instagram, “Where there’s no pain, there is no gain.”

Selected by New England in the second round of the 2021 draft out of Alabama, Barmore appeared in all 17 games last season and had 8.5 sacks and 65 tackles. His diagnosis with blood clots was discovered after the Patriots opened training camp.

Last month, Patriots coach Jerod Mayo said there was a chance that Barmore could appear in games this season.



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Which struggling NFL teams have the best shot at playoffs?

We’re past the halfway point of the NFL season, which means the stretch run is about to open up. For some clubs, keeping a steady pace is all that’s needed to clinch a spot in the coming weeks. Others, though, should be prepared for a full-on sprint starting this Sunday.

The Philadelphia Eagles’ victory over the upstart Washington Commanders in Thursday’s showdown atop the NFC East delivered the drama and plenty of important playoff implications, too.

Now, as we look ahead to the rest of the Week 11 slate, we’re zooming in on a bunch of four-win squads sitting just outside the playoff picture — plus a three-win team we admittedly just cannot seem to look away from — to identify potential paths into the post-season, however unlikely some of them might be.

NOTE: Teams are listed within each conference by their current playoff odds, not their place in the standings.

(*Indicates upcoming opponent currently in a playoff spot.)

AFC

Current AFC playoff seeds: 1. Chiefs (9-0), 2. Bills (8-2), 3. Steelers (7-2), 4. Texans (6-4), 5. Ravens (7-3), Chargers (6-3), Broncos (5-5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-6) | Current playoff odds: 26 per cent

Even though they sit one slot behind the Colts in the standings, Cincinnati’s odds of a post-season berth are the highest of all non-playoff AFC squads. That’s based primarily on remaining opponents and division outlook, of course, but it’s also quite fitting. Where other teams might get the benefit of the doubt, the Bengals get an extra dose considering Joe Burrow’s earned a reputation for starting slow and sparking wild runs down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Cincinnati’s remaining opponents: @ Chargers*, Week 12 bye, vs. Steelers*, @ Cowboys, @ Titans, vs. Browns (TNF), vs. Broncos*, @ Steelers*

The Bengals’ slate of opponents brings several challenges, sure, but it also brings the potential for big swings in playoff odds. A win Sunday night against the Chargers, currently sixth in the AFC, would see Cincinnati’s post-season percentage jump up to 39 per cent. Maintain a strong pace, and they’ll have another chance to leapfrog a fellow wild card contender in Denver in Week 17. Even a pair of upcoming divisional battles against Pittsburgh could bring a silver lining, despite what will be a tall order to defeat the current AFC North leaders — twice. While the division crown is all but officially out of reach, there’s still ground to be gained, especially if the Ravens — who already swept their season series against Cincinnati — can hand Pittsburgh a loss this Sunday to take over the divisional lead.

A loss this Sunday against L.A. brings a major dip in playoff odds, down to just 14 per cent.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-6) | Current playoff odds: 22 per cent

Despite suffering three straight losses, the Colts can still very much be in control here — as long as they don’t extend that losing streak to four. The Colts have the second easiest remaining strength of schedule, and two of those matchups — Sunday’s bout with the Jets and a Week 15 date in Denver — represent two of the more winnable games with plenty of reward at stake considering both squads could stand in Indy’s way down the stretch.

Indianapolis’ remaining opponents: @ Jets, vs. Lions*, @ Patriots, Week 14 bye, @ Broncos*, vs. Titans, @ Giants, vs. Jaguars

Their toughest remaining opponent is a doozy — they take on the NFC-leading Detroit Lions in Week 12 — but the fact it’s a non-conference game works in their favour as far as playoff odds go.

So, uh, who will be starting these important matchups? Make the wrong call, and your playoff odds could drastically sink with the rest of the season. A loss this Sunday in New York means a drop in playoff probability down to 12 per cent.

NEW YORK JETS (3-7) | Current playoff odds: 14 per cent

There’s a reason the Jets are the lone three-win squad on this list despite the fact they sit below their divisional foes in Miami in the AFC playoff picture. While both teams have just a trio of wins to their names, there’s a bigger reward awaiting New York if they can notch a fourth win this Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts. A bounce-back win at home could see Gang Green leapfrog the Colts, currently eighth in the AFC, in playoff odds. (Miami, meanwhile, has an easier schedule but less leverage in terms of being able to take down other teams in the hunt.)

New York’s remaining opponents: vs. Colts, Week 12 bye, vs. Seahawks, @ Dolphins, @ Jaguars, vs. Rams, @ Bills*, vs. Dolphins

If Aaron Rogers & Co. can beat the Colts, they can stay in this race with a 20 per cent playoff probably, and be plenty interested in Sunday night’s showdown between the Bengals and Chargers.  That “if” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here, because a loss this Sunday means a lost season in New York.

NFC

Current NFC playoff seeds: 1. Lions (8-1), 2. Eagles (8-2), 3. Falcons (6-4), 4. Cardinals (6-4), 5. Vikings (7-2), 6. Packers (6-3), 7. Commanders (7-4)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-6) | Current playoff odds: 37 per cent

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing their best football right now, with Baker Mayfield doing everything in his power to will this team forward — including holding off Nick Bosa with one arm and throwing a crucial third-down conversion with the other — but the results simply aren’t swinging their way. Back-to-back last-second losses to the Chiefs and 49ers, respectively, points to a team that’s better than its record indicates.

There’s a reason Baker’s Bucs still have a 36 per cent chance of making the playoffs despite currently ranking 12th in the NFC standings — they’ve got the NFL’s schedule-makers to thank for that, with an opportunity to right some wrongs down the stretch.

Tampa Bay’s remaining opponents: Week 11 bye, @ Giants, @ Panthers, vs. Raiders, @ Chargers*, @ Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

The Buccaneers have the easiest remaining schedule based on strength of opponents. Following a much-needed Week 11 bye to rest up, Tampa Bay faces a string of winnable games. Only one of their upcoming opponents currently has a winning record, making their Week 15 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers a key measuring-stick game for a club that could be a bit healthier by then.

Despite the NFC South once again being a very winnable division, the Buccaneers’ 0-2 record against the Atlanta Falcons this year will likely come back to haunt them — perhaps even more than the string of injuries they’ve suffered on offence. The 6-4 Falcons are hitting their stride, and any hopes of the Buccaneers being able to catch them atop the division requires a major stumble down the stretch.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (4-5) | Current playoff odds: 11 per cent

Even though San Francisco (5-4) is currently on the outside looking in, it feels like it’s only a matter of time before the 49ers are back in the playoff picture — while they can’t quite make the leap this Sunday, a win over the Seattle Seahawks would see them leapfrog the division-leading Cardinals in terms of overall playoff odds, jumping up to 65 per cent. (The Cardinals stand pat atop the NFC West while on bye with a 59 per cent chance of making the playoffs.)

Arizona’s Week 5 win over San Francisco means they’ll maintain their spot atop the division for at least one more week regardless of Sunday’s outcome, but can only watch as the 49ers and Seahawks fight to turn up the heat in this intriguing division. The outcome of Sunday’s 49ers-Seahawks bout could greatly influence the divisional outlook. The climb back into the post-season is significantly steeper for Seattle, and it pretty much has to begin with a win over the 49ers. A loss would see their playoff odds dip all the way down to six per cent. A win hikes it to 23.

Seattle’s remaining opponents: @ 49ers, vs. Cardinals*, @ Jets, @ Cardinals*, vs. Packers*, vs. Vikings*, @ Bears (TNF), @ Rams

The Seahawks’ upcoming schedule is a study in high-risk, high-reward. Seven of their remaining eight games are against NFC foes, six of whom (including two dates with the Cardinals) are currently ahead of Seattle in the playoff picture. Can they leapfrog their way into relevance?

LOS ANGELES RAMS (4-5) | Current playoff odds: 11 per cent

Monday’s loss to the Miami Dolphins was a major missed opportunity for the Rams, who’d gained some much-needed momentum ahead of the NFL’s trade deadline. Can they build on it? A get-right game in New England feels like a good place to start, but their remaining schedule isn’t necessarily conducive to building momentum.

L.A.’s remaining opponents: @ Patriots, vs. Eagles*, @ Saints, vs. Bills*, @ 49ers (TNF), @ Jets, vs. Cardinals*, vs. Seahawks

Even going .500 in their next four matchups — an entirely reasonable request — en route to a mid-December Thursday night date in San Francisco could potentially make things really interesting, if the 49ers stumble. The Rams already defeated the 49ers earlier this season, and sweeping the series gives L.A. leverage if the NFC West standings stay as tight as they are.

The Rams finish the season with divisional matchups against Arizona, then Seattle, respectively — stay in the mix until then, and we could have some fireworks in the NFL’s most intriguing division.

CHICAGO BEARS (4-5) | Current playoff odds: 2 per cent

Let’s be honest — while their record doesn’t look so bad on paper, there isn’t much of a silver lining here, considering the difficult path ahead. Things were starting to look up for the Bears, who entered their Week 7 bye on a three-game win streak that saw top pick Caleb Williams starting to hit his stride, but any emerging momentum was swiftly derailed by one wild Hail Mary pass launched from the powerful arm of Jayden Daniels.

Surely, there were cracks in the foundation already, but it’s as though that single play broke the Bears — in back-to-back losses since that defensive misplay for the ages, Chicago has been outscored by a combined 48-12, including last week’s miserable three-point outing against the rebuilding Patriots that has prompted plenty of chatter about whether it’s time to bench Williams.

Chicago’s remaining opponents: vs. Packers*, vs. Vikings*, @ Lions*, @ 49ers, @ Vikings*, vs. Lions*, vs. Seahawks (TNF), @ Packers*

Things are about to get messier. The Bears have yet to play a divisional game, with six of their final eight matchups now coming against NFC North rivals. If they have any hope of turning things around, it has to start Sunday with a win against the Packers — a team that’s defeated Chicago in 10 consecutive contests.



from Sportsnet.ca
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