Red Bull’s Max Verstappen could hit the jackpot Saturday night at the Las Vegas Grand Prix.
Verstappen has a shot at clinching his fourth consecutive Formula 1 drivers’ championship to join all-time greats Juan Manuel Fangio, Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton among those who have accomplished the feat.
That will also set the stage for Verstappen to pursue a “drive for five” next season and attempt to equal Michael Schumacher’s record of five straight titles.
McLaren’s Lando Norris is the only other driver remaining in the championship chase. Norris will need to go all-in to stay in the race, pun intended, as Verstappen holds a comfortable 62-point lead in the standings.
The cards are in Verstappen’s hands. Here’s how the title could be decided in Vegas:
Verstappen finishes ahead of Norris
The least complicated scenario for Verstappen is to outright win the race — easier said than done, of course — but he doesn’t even need to do that. Just finishing ahead of Norris will be good enough to secure the title.
Verstappen won in Las Vegas last year although it wasn’t the cleanest of victories. He forced pole-sitter Charles Leclerc off of the track at the first turn on the opening lap and was handed a five-second penalty. Verstappen was also involved in a collision with George Russell, although the Mercedes driver was at fault for that one.
The Dutch driver is coming off a huge win earlier this month as he snapped his 10-race winless drought during a rainy and wet Sao Paulo Grand Prix. It was a brilliant performance from Verstappen, who started 17th on the grid due to an engine penalty but charged through the field and took advantage of a red flag to score a free pit stop for fresh tires.
Whether it was skill or luck, or a bit of both, we definitely will not see a repeat of those conditions in the desert of Las Vegas. The odds of that happening are about as likely as a double podium for Alpine. Oh, wait.
Norris fails to outscore Verstappen by at least three points
Even if Verstappen finishes behind Norris, he could still lock down the championship if there’s less than a three-point margin.
One example: Norris could finish third (15 points), but if Verstappen comes in fourth and earns the fastest lap bonus point (13 points) he’s still golden.
Should Verstappen retire from the race or end up out of the points, Norris would have to finish in at least eighth place or come in ninth and set the fastest lap to earn enough points.
Norris will likely have to place much higher though. Outside of his DNF at the Australian GP in March, Verstappen has finished no worse than sixth this season.
Norris retires from the race
The anti-climactic scenario but one we have to consider. If Norris DNFs, then it’s over before the checkered flag even drops.
Could it happen? Well, Norris lost control of his car and crashed out on the third lap of last year’s Las Vegas GP, so it’s a possibility.
Norris has only finished out of the points once this season when he collided with Verstappen during the Austrian GP.
What if Norris manages to outscore Verstappen by three or more points?
There is reason to believe Norris could keep his title bid alive for at least another week. During Verstappen’s 10-race winless skid, Norris outscored him by at least three points on six occasions.
Time is running out though. After Vegas, only two races and a sprint remain on the calendar with a maximum of 60 points available.
The best-case scenario for Norris is if he wins Vegas and sets the fastest lap while Verstappen finishes out of the top 10. That will cut the deficit down to 36 points heading into Qatar.
If the drivers’ championship is decided early, there’s still the constructors’ title to fight over. McLaren enters Las Vegas with a 36-point lead over Ferrari while Red Bull is 49 points back in third place.
from Sportsnet.ca
via i9bet
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