OTTAWA — The Ottawa Senators are caught between a rock and a hard place ahead of the March 7 trade deadline. The four-letter word Senators fans have heard in recent deadlines has been “sell.” But now, the team is clinging for dear life to a playoff berth with plenty of teams circling around.
The team needs a boost to ensure a chance at snapping a seven-year playoff drought, but will general manager Steve Staios break the bank to make that happen?
Highly unlikely.
Why?
A couple reasons. First, the team has very few assets. Ottawa has traded its first-round picks in three straight years, and faces the future loss of a first-round pick in 2025 or 2026 for the botched Evgeni Dadonov trade. The cabinet is bare. (Carter Yakemchuk says hi).
The other hiccup is the Senators have very little cap space. Yes, you read that right. For the first time in too long, the Senators are paying to the cap and, according to PuckPedia, they will have $1.65 million in cap space by deadline time.
To simplify it, for almost any trade of substance to occur the Senators will need to flush out another salary. Addition with subtraction.
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Even if Ottawa could muster the assets to acquire some talent, the cap minutiae would be difficult to pull off.
But the time is now to push for the playoffs. Every team in the Atlantic Division next season could have a legitimate goal of making the playoffs. The playoffs are right there, right now.
That doesn’t mean the Senators should trade all of their future for the now (which happened under the previous regime). However, there are ways to make the team marginally better for the final 25 games because there are holes in the roster.
What I’m hearing is that the Senators and Staios believe their team is good when the currently injury Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris and Shane Pinto are in the lineup. I don’t expect an overly active deadline from Ottawa. My sense is the organization feels that they are set on defence and in net with the emergence of Nikolas Matinpalo and Leevi Merilainen.
The Senators are testing the theory of having too many defencemen with eight on the roster. But other than potentially adding another left-shot defenceman to insulate Tyler Kleven, Ottawa is good on the backend. Ottawa is ninth in goals allowed and in the top half in most defensive team metrics. Defence isn’t the problem, and Merilainen has shown himself to be more than capable in net.
Don’t expect a blockbuster, instead it’s likely a “Steady” Steve Staios deadline. But Staios should consider a major move if he can acquire a player that can dramatically change the fortunes of the team. This team has holes, and whenever he can, the GM should plug them.
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Real Kyper’s Trade Board
Hockey Insider Nick Kypreos shares the latest intel on players who could be on the move ahead of the March 7 trade deadline.
One area that should be enhanced is the forward group, which needs a punch of more finishing and speed. Even before the injuries to Tkachuk, Norris and Pinto the team had consistently struggled to score. The Senators are ranked 22nd in the league in scoring at 2.79 goals per game and were shut out five times in January.
The Senators’ lack of finishing can be explained easily by just looking at shooting percentage. The club is 29th in the league in all situations at 9.40 per cent but drops to 32nd with just 6.73 per cent when narrowed down to five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick.
For their part, the Senators don’t seem concerned about the low shooting percentage.
“I think it’s always going to even out,” Tim Stutzle said. “Throughout the year, teams get 40 shots and just score one goal. Maybe (we need) to get to the net front more often and get some more rebounds and get some ugly goals.”
All season, coach Travis Green has mixed and matched wingers for Stutzle but none have clicked other than Tkachuk. Outside of Stutzle, Norris and Pinto, there is very little speed within the forward group. Over half of the forward group has below-league-average speed, according to NHL Edge data.
To the eye test, there are many times that Stutzle jumps into the play with his blistering speed and must wait for his teammates to catch up. Same goes for Norris and Pinto.
In today’s NHL, the most important attribute is speed.
Staios’s summer moves brought in veteran forwards David Perron, Michael Amadio and Nick Cousins but none of them are speed burners. Cousins is currently out injured but there is some belief that he could return in April, which weighs into Ottawa’s deadline equation.
Ottawa’s emphasis must be to find a winger who has enough wheels and skill to play with their centremen.
Potential fits would be Ryan Donato, Jake Evans, Ryan Strome and Mathieu Olivier. They aren’t big names, but can they make a significant impact within a reasonable cost and cap hit. A solid middle-six forward with speed and finish could provide a similar boost to the one Nick Jensen has brought to Ottawa after getting swapped for the “big name” Jakob Chychrun. Jensen isn’t a star or glitzy player, especially compared to Chychrun, but he’s had an enormous impact on the Senators as an excellent partner for Thomas Chabot.
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In an ideal world with cap space and more assets, the Senators could be aiming higher.
There are different avenues to create cap space, such as trading Anton Forsberg’s $2.75 million expiring contract, but Merilainen was hurt in Belleville on Monday, clouding that option. An alternative might be moving Perron’s $4 million AAV contract with another season left on the deal. Any shedding of salary for Ottawa would likely be for an impact player with term.
Staios almost acquired Linus Ullmark at last season’s trade deadline and eventually got him in the summer. If there is a trade that could solidify the forward group for years to come, Staios shouldn’t hesitate to pounce.
Sportsnet’s Jacob Stoller floated the name of Seattle’s Jared McCann as potentially being on the trading block.
McCann, a once 40-goal scorer who consistently produces 20 goals while bringing some speed, would work well in the top six and has two more seasons remaining on his contract at $5 million. He would be a perfect acquisition for the Senators.
McCann is an example of a player Ottawa should go after and give up assets for if he is made available. A trade for the now and future.
I am hearing the team believes they did most of their work over the off-season in acquiring Ullmark, Jensen, Perron, Amadio and Cousins. Nevertheless, Staios has preached constant evaluation and putting everything on the table.
As Senators fans know, it’s been a long time since Ottawa has had an opportunity to clinch a playoff spot. To get there, the team needs another forward and they have less than two weeks until the deadline to find one.
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