When the 2025 season began, the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t seem to have much in common.
Both were expensive, big-market clubs, but Toronto was coming off a 74-88 season while the Dodgers were defending champions. Los Angeles had accumulated 51 post-season wins and two titles since the Blue Jays had last tasted a single postseason victory. The Dodgers were on the other end of Toronto’s dogged, but ultimately futile, pursuits of Shohei Ohtani and Roki Sasaki.
Yet when the World Series opens on Friday night (Sportsnet, 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT), the clubs will stand shoulder-to-shoulder as peers.
Earning a pennant and the opportunity to prevent the Dodgers from becoming the first team to go back-to-back in a quarter century is one thing. Getting the job done is another.
Here’s a closer look at the matchup that will determine if Toronto wins its first World Series title in 32 years:
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Watch the Blue Jays in the World Series on Sportsnet
The Toronto Blue Jays are heading to the World Series for the first time in 32 years. Watch the Blue Jays face the Dodgers beginning on Friday at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+.
What’s working for the Blue Jays
Toronto has been widely celebrated for getting contributions from every aspect of its roster, but the clear foundation of the Blue Jays’ post-season success is the club’s offence.
Since the first wild card was introduced to the playoff format in 1995, there have been 290 post-season teams, and the 2025 Blue Jays have the highest wRC+ of that group (143).
To give that number some perspective, if a qualified hitter had produced a 143 wRC+ this season, he would’ve ranked eighth in the majors, right between Ketel Marte and Pete Alonso. The next-best number in the last 30 years (the 2007 Boston Red Sox) isn’t even particularly close (135). They managed that historic number without Bo Bichette, who may return for the Fall Classic.
When the playoffs began, it was fair to wonder if the Blue Jays could maintain their success making contact from the regular season against the elite pitching they’d see in October. The team’s middle-of-the-pack home run total was also flagged as a concern.
During this run, the Blue Jays have seen their already-low regular-season strikeout rate drop from 17.8 per cent to 14.8 per cent while their isolated slugging leapt from .162 — almost exactly league average (.159) — to .227 while hitting 20 home runs in 11 games.
Everything Toronto is doing offensively is working right now.
What’s working for the Dodgers
While the Blue Jays lineup is performing at a historic level, the same could be said for the Dodgers rotation.
In the group of 290 playoff teams we listed above, Los Angeles has the best rotation ERA of any team that lasted more than four games (1.40).
The Dodgers’ quartet of Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow has conceded just 29 hits in 64.1 innings with only two clearing the wall. The group hasn’t been healthy all season long, but they came together at precisely the right time, with each starter finishing strong and riding that momentum into the playoffs.
Since Sept. 1, the group has made 25 starts, conceding 24 earned runs. They’ve struck out 194 batters in 153.1 innings in that time, and opponents have gotten multiple runs off one of them in a single outing just four times.
The Dodgers rotation is a buzzsaw with four pitchers who each average more than 96 m.p.h. on their fastball and feature nasty secondary stuff that generates whiffs.
Potential Achilles heel for the Blue Jays
Some of Toronto’s biggest October moments have been driven — or at least supported — by excellent work out of the bullpen. The team’s relievers carried the load as they eliminated the Yankees in Game 4 of the ALDS and provided 5.1 innings of one-run ball in Game 7 of the ALCS, albeit with a little help from Kevin Gausman.
That doesn’t mean the overall body of work isn’t shaky. The Blue Jays have a 5.52 bullpen ERA in the playoffs with an even worse 5.70 FIP as their relievers have struggled badly with walks (4.73 BB/9) and home runs (2.17 HR/9).
In 11 playoff games, 12 Blue Jays have appeared in relief, and just three of them have an ERA below Louis Varland’s middling 3.72. Two members of that group are Gausman and Chris Bassitt, who aren’t regular relievers — though Bassitt may step into that role in the World Series.
This group is better than its ugly numbers suggest, and there are some pitchers like setup man Seranthony Domínguez and the seldom-used Eric Lauer who should be able to give more than they have so far.
A little positive regression can’t fix every issue, though. A duo which served in high-leverage roles for much of the season — Yariel Rodríguez and Brendon Little — looks lost, and the rookie pair of Braydon Fisher and Mason Fluharty has yet to inspire confidence.
Someone in this bullpen is likely to find their feet and produce a couple of clean innings, but manager John Schneider doesn’t have many reliable options who are currently pitching well outside of Jeff Hoffman.
Potential Achilles heel for the Dodgers
Los Angeles has the same primary weakness as the Blue Jays.
The Dodgers feature a nasty rotation and a potent veteran lineup, but they can be vulnerable late in games.
Sasaki has been a revelation at the back of the bullpen, but he can’t be a one-man band, and Los Angeles often struggles to build a sturdy bridge to its new closer.
Of the 12 playoff teams, the Dodgers had the second-worst bullpen ERA (4.27) during the regular season, and that number has gotten worse in the playoffs (4.88). A significant issue for the group has been an inability to miss bats (7.48 K/9), which has even been a worry for Sasaki (6.75).
A group that already struggles to punch out opponents could have difficulty escaping jams against a Blue Jays lineup that relentlessly puts the ball in play.
It’ll all come down to…
If the Blue Jays can stay in games early. The bullpen vulnerability in this series means it has late-game heroics written all over it.
But that potential drama won’t unfold if the Los Angeles consistently gains a stranglehold on games in the opening innings behind its starting-pitching edge.
Toronto will need to either be the first team to touch up the Dodgers’ four-headed monster or get some stellar work from its own rotation to dethrone the champs.
from Sportsnet.ca
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