OTTAWA — We’ve arrived at the halfway mark of the season and the Ottawa Senators‘ grade with a 21-18-3 record would be a nice, solid B. They haven’t exceeded expectations, but they are right in the mix of the playoffs bunched among more teams than you can count on your hand.
As general manager Steve Staios plainly assessed, the team is eight points up on where it was last year.
The days of bold predictions from the general manager are gone in the Staios era, compared with those of his predecessor. Staios does not divulge anything.
It was clear ahead of the season that the Senators wanted to be a better defensive team and instill those attributes, which both Staios and his coach Travis Green have preached about on the regular. The Senators have done that, finding themselves 12th in goal against.
The Senators survived their nine-game road trip and have a home-friendly back half of their schedule that they hope to take advantage of. Everything is set for this team to break its seven-season playoff drought. The playoffs are within Brady Tkachuk’s six-foot-four reach.
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KEY STATS
Record: 21-18-3 (6th in Atlantic Division, 18th in NHL)
Goals per game: 2.90 (20th in the NHL)
Goals against per game: 2.83 (12th in the NHL)
Power play: 24.1% (10th in the NHL)
Penalty kill: 78.4% (18th in the NHL)
BEST SURPRISE
What if I told you before the season that the Senators would be one point out of a playoff spot at the halfway mark and have the seventh-best point percentage in the Eastern Conference, all with Linus Ullmark having played just 23 of 42 games? You’d probably say “Wow.” Ullmark has been exceptional (when he’s played), but has been injured three times and his status is uncertain. “I don’t have a timeline on it,” said Staios about Ullmark’s return, adding he was optimistic it would be in the “near future.”
Of course, when your goaltender makes saves and you give up fewer goals, you win, but the difference between good and porous goaltending is stark in terms of the Senators’ outcomes this season:
Record when the Senators get a save percentage of .900 or better: 16-2-2
Record when the Senators get a save percentage below .900: 5-16-1
Meanwhile, the Senators have taken a massive jump in team save percentage, from 32nd last season to 14th this season, which has translated to six shutouts, tied for the league lead. Crazy (not-so-crazy) how getting saves changes a team’s overall propensity to win hockey games.
More good news is that Leevi Merilainen, 22, has installed himself as the No. 1 in Ullmark’s absence. Green made the bold step of playing Merilainen in back-to-backs instead of Anton Forsberg, who has struggled with an .883 save percentage this season.
Against Pittsburgh and Dallas, on successive nights, Merilainen stopped 63 of 65 shots and has a .913 save percentage and 2.34 goals-against average, winning four of five starts.
“He’s looked progressively more comfortable,” said Green.
The Senators have survived an injured Ullmark and have found ways to stay in the mix without their Vezina-calibre netminder. This team is at the stage where if it gets good goaltending, it stands a good chance of making the playoffs.
More good surprises: Shoutouts to Thomas Chabot, Nick Jensen and Drake Batherson, who all have all been exceptional all season.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT
The Senators have struggled to score. Ahead of the season, the emphasis from Green was to prevent goals on a team that had battled to be effective in its own end. He’s succeeded, but Green’s team has laboured to score goals at the other end.
The team is 21st in goals and last in the NHL in goals from defencemen. You would think that a team with such high-end scorers such as Tim Stutzle, Tkachuk, Batherson and Josh Norris would be closer to the top-third in scoring. Those big guns are doing their jobs, each on pace for over 25 goals and over 50 points.
Rather, the team’s struggles have been because of the lack of secondary scoring. Adam Gaudette has 13 goals, but has dried up lately, with just one goal in his last 18 games. Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig, Michael Amadio, David Perron and Nick Cousins have combined for 21 goals. Despite injuries to some of those players, the lack of depth scoring has hurt.
The Senators have scored five goals or more only three times since the start of November. Yikes.
It also doesn’t help when you are 27th in high-danger chances created, according to Natural Stat Trick. Batherson, for example, went goalless on the nine-game road trip.
“I’m paid to produce,” he told Sportsnet.ca. “And frustrated I haven’t been producing, but you just got to stick with it and stay positive. The worst thing you do is get down on yourself and not be confident.”
Then there’s the fact the Senators have a large discrepancy between shots (12th) and high-danger chances (27th).
“That’s interesting,” Batherson said. “I remember when I was in the minors, my coach was all about high-danger shots, and didn’t want us taking bad shots. And we’d get 20 shots a game and win 6-1 just because it was all high-danger.”
Batherson explained his approach to create better chances.
“If you have a clean shot from outside of the top of the circles, it’s probably not going in, nine times out of 10,” said Batherson. “I think the teams that are probably top of the league are high up there in high-danger shots. The high-dangers come from trusting your instincts, making plays out there, and it will all turn around.”
Simple strategy: get better looks, score more and keep goals out. The Senators will need to find the twine more or else they’ll find themselves golfing in April once again.
BIG QUESTION FOR THE SECOND HALF
Will Staios buy or stand pat at the trade deadline?
Staios has plenty of avenues to explore via the trade route, from adding another top-six forward, bottom-pair defenceman or goalie insurance for the injured Ullmark.
Staios is coy about any potential trades or signings. His team is up against the cap, and will lose its first-round selection either this year or in 2026 because of the botched Evgeni Dadonov trade.
That looms large in Staios’ decision as the deadline approaches.
“It comes into play,” said Staios. “I mean, we do have to pay our debt to the league in this situation. … We’ll look at all ways to be able to do that. I don’t think a first-round pick is the only way to do it.”
Staios made no bold predictions about buying at the deadline.
“We’ll keep an eye on it,” said Staios, when asked about whether he’d be willing to trade assets to improve the team at the deadline.
However, it seems as though Staios is happy with his existing options.
“I feel like we have that internally … when we’re playing with confidence, we can really create offence,” said Staios, when asked about trading for an offensive weapon.
Staios’ club is in a prime position to make the playoffs. Outside of a reckless win-now move, Staios MUST acquire talent to upgrade this team at the deadline. The Senators are too close, and this season is too important to waste another season with Tkachuk, Stutzle and Jake Sanderson in their primes. If Staios really wants his team to learn winning habits, then set it up to succeed.
He’s done the hard part by acquiring veterans and the No. 1 goaltender. Now it’s time to finish the job … which he would say to his own team heading into the second half of the season.
from Sportsnet.ca
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