It’s been a busy, fascinating month for UFC’s welterweight division, as most of its top-10 waged a grand prix that produced a new champion, gave rise to multiple exciting up-and-comers, and created an array of fresh matchup possibilities the company could pursue in the new year.
The divisional jockeying culminated Saturday, as Ian Machado Garry sailed to a unanimous decision victory over former champion Belal Muhammad, who’s now lost two straight. There are plenty of quality 170-pound fights remaining for Muhammad if he wants them — just not a clear path back to the title. At 37, he must decide what direction is best at this late stage of his excellent career.
Meanwhile, Garry has indicated he doesn’t feel he needs to take another non-title fight after beating top contenders each of his last two times out. We’ll see if he can truly stay sidelined and wait for his opportunity, or if UFC will ask him to win once more while the top of the division is tied up.
With so much recent activity and so many promising competitors emerging, there are several ways welterweight matchmaking could shake out in early 2026. So, let’s look at one configuration we could see — we’ll take Garry at his word and leave him out of it for now — as the UFC looks to sustain the momentum of its hottest division into the new year.
Kamaru Usman vs. Islam Makhachev
Let’s start with a statement of fact — Garry’s done far more to earn a title opportunity than Usman. Full stop. And if UFC matchmaking were a perfectly equitable, meritocratic system, is Usman the fighter you would pick for Makhachev’s first title defence? Of course not. Usman’s lost three of his last four, including a pair to Leon Edwards, who’s been getting chewed up by welterweight’s young up-and-comers since.
Usman can argue he’s coming off a win and a fight of the night bonus, but it was over Joaquin Buckley, who is young and talented, but isn’t among the division’s top contenders. And Usman didn’t make a statement in the process, winning on the strength of takedowns and top control over the first three rounds before Buckley could get going on the feet. From the third through fifth rounds, Buckley won the significant strikes battle, 41-24.
And yet, we must face reality. Besides Usman stating his own case, here’s a non-exhaustive list of significant voices who have recently indicated he’s next up for a title shot:
- Makhachev
- Ali Abelaziz, Makhachev and Usman’s shared manager
- Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makachev’s coach
- Dana White, UFC President
When that many powerful principals are saying it, we should probably listen. And you can see everyone’s motivation.
Usman’s the second-best welterweight in UFC history after Georges St-Pierre. For the legacy-minded Makhachev and Nurmagomedov, a victory over him would be a significant scalp to obtain. And over time, the fight’s context and circumstance will fade from fans’ minds, leaving only a noteworthy name on Makhachev’s Tapology page.
For the UFC, it represents one last opportunity to leverage Usman’s notoriety and recognizability among a broader audience to draw attention. Like it or not, casual fans are the majority, and Usman’s name still carries weight thanks to a dominant title run that saw him defend his belt five times, capped by memorable matchups with outsized personalities Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington.
We just saw the UFC run this playbook in the heavyweight division, where Jon Jones’ lone title defence came against Stipe Miocic, a once-great champion who was 42 and hadn’t won in over four years, while a richly deserving Tom Aspinall spun his wheels on the sidelines, despite winning and defending an interim title.
Jones closed as a -650 favourite against Miocic, yet the fight still headlined a Madison Square Garden card that did a $16.6-million gate, the fourth largest in UFC history. Despite the fight’s dubious circumstances, a massive audience still wanted to see it.
The incentives are simply too strong for those who stand to benefit most from a Usman-Makhachev booking. Unfortunately for him, Garry will have to wait his turn. He can weigh in as a back-up and watch from the front row, ready to jump into the octagon for a face-off with the winner as their next opponent.
The circumstances are equally unfortunate for the rest of the division, which is currently as talent-stacked and compelling as any in the sport. But the flip side of that is there’s plenty of space to create fascinating matchups that keep everyone busy in the meantime and help sort out who the next deserving challenger for the belt ought to be.
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Jack Della Maddalena
For as thoroughly outclassed as Della Maddalena was in losing his belt to Makhachev at UFC 322, we must remember a few facts.
He was facing a fighter who will likely end up on MMA’s Mount Rushmore when all is said and done. He’s only 29 and firmly within his athletic prime. That was his first time processing the attention, pressure, and expectations that come with main-eventing a Madison Square Garden card as defending champion. And it was his first loss in a 19-fight span beginning in 2016.
For those reasons and more, Della Maddalena remains one of the division’s most dangerous competitors and deserves a marquee matchup against a top-level opponent in his return to the octagon.
And opposition in the weight class doesn’t get much higher level than Rakhmonov, who’s undefeated in his 19-fight professional career and was originally booked to face Muhammad for the title last December before several twists of fate led to Della Maddalena replacing him in that fight and taking the belt himself.
After Muhammad pulled out of that December fight due to a bone infection, Rakhmonov accepted a late replacement bout against Garry. And although he came out on top in a five-round grinder, he exacerbated a knee injury that ultimately required surgery, sidelining him ever since. Rakhmonov is undoubtedly still among the top fighters in the division — but after such an extended layoff, he needs one more victory over a strong opponent to re-earn his title shot.
Michael Morales vs. Carlos Prates
This fight should have been signed the night of UFC 322, when Prates took Edwards off his feet with a left straight from hell, and Morales made quick work of a surging Sean Brady. Knowing these two, they may have wanted to fight right then and there.
Both can make a convincing case as the division’s most exciting up-and-comer. Prates has finished each of his seven UFC wins with a knockout; Morales has done so in five of his eight. Prates has won a performance of the night bonus in his last six victories; Morales has done the same in his last three.
If your lone mission was to create the most surefire banger among welterweight’s top-15, these are the two fighters you’d pick. And it’s a happy coincidence that a matchup between them would carry significant stakes, as well.
With Della Maddalena and Muhammad having both recently lost title fights, Garry, Rakhmonov, and these two stand out as the most deserving of an opportunity among the welterweight top five. UFC can make a supremely entertaining fight and narrow that field by one in the process.
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Sean Brady
Bonfim doesn’t carry the same name recognition as others in this division, but it’s getting hard to ignore what he’s doing. He’s 19-1 as a professional and 6-1 in the UFC; he’s won four straight, the last two over Stephen Thompson and Randy Brown. He’s due for a stiffer challenge against someone in the top 10.
Brady, meanwhile, is keen to stay active, which can be a gift and a curse. It earns a fighter plenty of points with fans and his promoter, but it also increases the risk of running into someone like Morales, who steamrolled Brady at UFC 322. Of course, Morales is a monster and on a fast track to a title shot, so Brady’s stock should only suffer so much. He’s still among the division’s best wrestlers.
For Bonfim, Brady’s a significant step up in competition and a test of whether he’s ready to tangle with the division’s upper tier or not. For Brady, Bonfim’s an opportunity to prove the Morales fight was a blip, and he remains as capable as many believed he was after rinsing Edwards behind enemy lines in London earlier this year.
Joaquin Buckley vs. Leon Edwards or Belal Muhammad
Coming off three consecutive losses against some of the division’s top competitors — Muhammad, Brady, and Prates — Edwards needs to figure out what his next move is. Does he believe there’s a path back to the title he held and defended twice two years ago? Does he want to kick around as a welterweight gatekeeper, taking over for Gilbert Burns and Neil Magny? Does he have enough frame to fill out and try his luck up at middleweight?
You could ask similar questions about Muhammad coming off his loss to Garry. Edwards is 34; Muhammad’s 37. Presuming they want to stick around at 170 pounds, both are due for a step back in competition.
And Buckley, coming off his loss to Usman, needs a winnable fight to reestablish his upward momentum. Much of his original push up the rankings came against past-prime strikers such as Vicente Luque and Thompson. It makes sense to feed him one more in Edwards to try to get back on track.
If Edwards doesn’t want it, call Muhammad. If Muhammad doesn’t want it, you’re onto unranked welterweights such as Daniel Rodriguez, Joel Alvarez, or Uros Medic. No one wants to fight down. But if the rest of the top-10 squares off without him, the always-active Buckley may not have a choice.
from Sportsnet.ca
via i9bet
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